Shaikh and Zaman (1983) have used time series methods to forecast basmati rice exports in Pakistan. This paper re-examines the techniques used by these authors. Shaikh and Zaman predicted an increase in exports, from 261.808·in 1981 -82 to 2900418 in 1982-83. Albeit, the actual exports declined to 237.739 in 1982-83. Our model , on the other hand, correctly picked the pattern and the forecast for 1982- 83 is quite close to the actual value, i.e ., 238.18. Our results clearly indicate that proper application of time series methods significantly improves the quality of forecast.
S. Fakre MAHMUD, Mohammed NISHAT. (1987) SHORT-TERM FORECASTING: An Application of Box-Jenkins Methods, Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Volume-06, Issue-1.